Advantages ND Disadvantages of Strategic Planning

By far the most common model of how strategies are developed in organisations is based on the notion that strategies are systematically and formally planned following a set of relatively rigid steps and procedures. Some refer to this notion of strategy development as a ‘design' view of strategy. Most text books and courses on strategic management and planning have adopted and promoted the design view of strategy. There are a number of claimed advantages of developing strategies through highly structured and formal planning systems and steps in an organisation. The main advantages are as follows: First, formalised planning provides what many would term a logical and certainly a structured means of analysis and thinking about complex strategic problems. There is no doubt that strategy development is complex and formal planning systems attempt to help resolve and deal with this complexity by following a series of distinct steps and stages which the manager can follow in this complex area. Â · Secondly, it is argued that formal planning systems force managers to take a longer term view of strategic options and directions than would otherwise have been the case. In particular, the stages of environmental and competitor analysis which form a key part of most formalised corporate planning systems encompass planning horizons of three years at the minimum, and in some cases up to 20 years. Â · Formal planning systems also tend to facilitate the process of control and evaluation. So, for example, because objectives in formal planning systems are required to be specified and because strategic direction is determined in advance, the measurement of performance against these is facilitated. Another claimed advantage is that co-ordination between different functions and managers throughout the organisation can be increased with formal planning systems. This is because very often a formal planning system will require the different functions/managers to work together towards the achievement of corporate objectives in a manner specified in the corporate plan. Â · Finally, formal planning is claimed to help to motivate individuals towards the achievemen t of strategic objectives particularly where they are nvolved in the planning process and feel, therefore, that they have some degree of ownership and commitment to the process. On the other hand there can be disadvantages to formal planning as follows: Â · Firstly, formal planning can mean that strategies may not adequately reflect the people and cultural elements of the organisation. Individual managers may feel absolved from any strategic planning responsibilities, these being left to the specialist strategic planners. As a result, line managers may not feel they ‘own’ strategic plans. Formal strategic planning can also sometimes be restrictive and inflexible, particularly where the environment is changing rapidly. This may result in lost opportunities and a gradual loss of strategic fit. Â · Formal strategic planning can become very cumbersome and over-detailed requiring large amounts of analysis and information, often resulting in information overload. Â · Finally formal strategic planning can become a substitute for in that it can become an activity in its own right divorced from the actual activities and plans of the organisation. We can see that formalised strategic planning has both advantages and disadvantages. Although the design model of strategy development is still the most prevalent model in text books and most organisations, it is increasingly recognised that, particularly because of an increasingly dynamic and unpredictable environment, highly formalised and structured approaches to developing strategic plans are becoming less appropriate and effective. Planning systems now need to be more ideas-based and flexible with less formalisation and adherence to strict procedures and steps. In addition, and related to this, is the increasing emergence of strategies from various levels of the organisation rather than the top-down approach to strategic planning which tends to accompany the highly formalised and structured approaches. Probably the best approach is to have some structure to the planning process whilst remaining flexible, and above all not allowing the strategic planning process to become an end in itself.

Atlas Honda Motorcycle company †BRM report Essay

Atlas Auto Limited manufactures and markets Honda Motorcycle under a technical assistance agreement with Honda Motorcycle Company LTD. of Japan. An epoch-making event in the history of the company cementing of Atlas Honda relation with Honda Motorcycle Company LTD. Of Japan becoming as equity-holder in Atlas in 1988. Due to the suitability wide range and high quality of the product, Honda motorcycles are by for the best selling motorcycle in the country. Turnover has risen from Rs. 2. 5 million in 1965 to Rs. 830 million in1987. Pakistan’s motorcycle market size is still relatively quite small Nevertheless. Atlas has undertaken to develop local manufacturing capabilities to the highest-level economically feasible while a major role in localization has been assigned to vendor industries. Atlas has invested Rs. 197 million in fixed assets between 1983 and1987 to develop the country largest in house manufacturing capacity in the industry. By end of 1988 local component will go upto 70% of Atlas product. Atlas management is strivings to modernize company operation by adapting applicable aspects of research and theory and more especially Honda’s philosophy and practices to the realities of  Pakistani Conditions Company management structure and processes are being transferred to meet challenges of growth and change. Effort are being made to develop genuine participation of all levels of personnel in decision making; substantial and effective delegation has been established at all level various participation programmes, such as â€Å"Alaymayar† quality circles movement launched in 1985 are supported to encourage constructive self expression and team work. The company training and development programmes encourage each member to develop himself to his full potential. To support the production facilities the company has established a R&D wing and tool making facilities which are set to grow rapidly in size and function. Atlas is playing a pioneering role in creating conditions for easy and confident use of motorcycle all over the country. A vast network of motorcycle, service and share parts dealers has been established to provide dependable service to every motorcycle user. To back up this system, Atlas has set up a permanent motorcycle technical training center in Lahore which provide several courses of varying duration and complexity for motorcycle mechanics user each year. Mobile training facilities take the latest know how on technology and maintenance of motorcycles to major rural centers around the country. ORGANIZATION HISTORY The established year of Atlas Autos Limited in 1963. In 1964 Atlas entered into technical assistance agreement with Honda Motorcycle Company of Japan for manufacturing and assembly of Honda Motorcycle in Pakistan. It is the only Public Limited Company in the industry of Pakistan. Atlas Autos Limited operate two plants one at Panjdarys Sheikhpura Road Lahore. Both Plants are franchises and have relationship of technical collaboration. MANAGEMENT OF ATLAS AUTOS. In 1964 Atlas autos started business as assembler of Honda Motorcycle, than they came into the business of import Honda spare parts. The organization set up of Atlas is as follows:- A Board of Director consists of 7 members, elect a chairman, chairman has all managerial authority. Chairman is selected out of directors and It is the responsibility of chairman to conduct the business on a satisfactory line and maximize the profit. After the chairman then comes C. E. O (Chief executive officer). Then for assistance of chairman and C. E. O personal manager, accounts manager, production manager and marketing manager are selected. Seven managers are working under C. E. O each manager is responsible for respective function. There are two sales managers one for North Zone and one for south Zone. In the every zone two provinces. In the North Zone come Punjab, NWFP and Azad Kashmir. In south zone Sindh and Baluchistan. In north zone there are three regions. 1- Lahore 2- Multan 3- Rawalpindi The head of every region is regional manager. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The main purpose of my research is:- v To Visualize and identify these factors that contribute to the demand of Honda Motorcycle in Multan city (Punjab, Pakistan). v To recommend suggestion to increase the demand of Honda Motorcycle and getting much marketing share. RESEARCH DESIGN Research design is the arrangement to condition for collection and analysis of data in a manner that aims to combine the relevance to research purpose with economy in procedure. Measurement For the measurement of attitude of people, We used open-ended questions as well as fixed alternative questions in our questionnaire. Sampling The basic idea in sampling is that the analysis of some of the element in the population provide useful information’s about entire population. An element is the subject on which the  measurement is being taken. It can be called as the unit of study. Population is the total collection of element about which we wish to make increase. For the selection of sample, we used the stratified sampling. We divide the Mutlan city into 4 regions which are given as under: 1. Gulgasht 2. Hussain Agahi 3. Shah Rukan Alam 4. Cantt After dividing the Multan city into different region. The we used random sampling and select 25 respondents from evry region. Our target respondents are the customers and dealers of Honda Motor Cycle. Sample Size Dealers and customers of Honda Motor Cycle are easily available, so it is easy to select a big  sample size. For the purpose of our research We selected a sample of 100 customers and 3 dealers of Honda Motor Cycle, because of the time constraint that’s why we selected these customers and dealers. Data Collection Method The report is based on primary data. Information are directly taken form the customers and dealers of Honda Motor Cycle for the particular purpose. For that purpose we developed two questionnaire ( for customers and dealers ). We have conducted personal survey method. The main qualities of this survey method are as fellows: 1. The most important features of this method is that it leads towards high participation. Moreover, in personally interview the interview can carry with additional information’s. 2. The props and visual aids can also enhance the vision of knowledge of interviewer. The interviewer has more control over the personal interview than other interrogation types. 3. The greatest value of this method is the depth and detail of information that can be secured. It for exceeds in volume and quality, the information we can usually secure from telephone and mail survey. 4. The interview can do more things to improve the quality of the information received than with other methods. Respondent motivation is heavily in the hand of the interviewer. Studies of reaction to a number of surveys indicate that respondents can be motivated to participate in personal interviews. Medium of Communication All the users of Honda Motor Cycle are not educated. So we adopt different style. For educated persons we use the same questionnaire. But for uneducated persons we translate the questionnaire for them. Questionnaire For Consumers Q. 1: What is your Occupation? REPONSES % AGE Student 15 15% Govt. Employee 40 40% Business man 20 20% Others 25 25% Total 100 100% Conclusion: In our respondents 15 persons are students, 40 are Govt. Employee, 20 business man and 25 are related to other occupation. From this result we can say the users of Honda Motorcycle are Govt. Employee and Other occupation. Q. 2: What is your Income Group? REPONSES % AGE 5000-10000 30 30% 11000-15000 40 40% 16000-20000 20 20% 21000-25000 8 8% 26000-above 2 2% Total 100 100% Conclusion: The respondents whose income is 5000 to 10000 are 30, 11000 to 15000 are 40, from 16000 to 20000 are 20, from 21000 to 25000 are 8 and finally 26000 and above are only 2. So we can say that the user of Honda Motorcycle is middle family people so it is bike of economical people. Q. 3: What is your preference? RESPONSES % AGE Yamaha 0 0% Honda 100 100% Suzuki 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: We have interviewed just those persons who are driving Honda Motor Cycle so preference for this sample comes to 100%. Q. 4: You yourself purchased it? RESPONSES % AGE Yes 92 No 8 Total 100 Conclusion: Out of a sample of 100 respondent 92 were of the view that they personally purchased the bike and 8 said that is give to them by their company. So it means that 92% people have purchased the bike personally which 8% people got it from their company. Q. 5: When did you purchase Honda Motorcycle? RESPONSES % AGE Before 1984 0 0% 1985-1990 10 10% 1991-1995 20 20% 1996-2000 25 25% After 2000 45 45% Total 100 100% Conclusion: When we asked this question to respondent, out of 100, 10 were those who purchased during 1985-1990, 20 were those who purchased during 1991-1995, 25 were those who purchased during 1996-2000 and finally 45 were those who purchased after 2000 so we can say that the market or demand of latest model is more than others. Q. 6: Why you purchase Honda Motorcycle? Because of RESPONSES % AGE Fuel consumption 58 58% Less Noisy 0 0% Parts Availability 0 0% All of the above 42 42% Total. Conclusion: Out of 100 respondents, 58 persons said that they preferred Honda Motorcycle due to fuel consumption, and 42 persons say that they purchase Honda motorcycle because of all these qualities which mention are present in the motorcycle. So we can say mostly people purchase Honda motorcycle because of Fuel consumption. Q. 7: have you used any other brand of Motorcycle? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 45 45% No 55 55% Total 100 100% Conclusion: When we asked this question, 45 respondents said that they used other brand of motorcycle while 55 persons told us that they never used any other brand of Motorcycle. Q. 8: If yes then what is the reason of change? RESPONSES %AGE Fuel consumption 40 88. 888% Spare part availability 0 0% Any other mention 5 11. 111% Total 45 100% Conclusion: In response to this question 40 respondent said that they have change previous motorcycle with Honda motorcycle because petrol average per liter of previous motorcycle is very low as compared to Honda motorcycle and 5 respondent said that any other mention like there machines are not easily available and etc. Q. 9: What is average coverage of your Motorcycle per liter? RESPONSES %AGE 40-50 15 15% 51-60 60 60% 61-70 25 25% 71-80 0 0%. Total 100 100% Conclusion: In the regard of this question, 15 person said that their bike cover 41-50 km per litter while 60 respondents said 51-60,and 25 respondent said 61-70. So I can say it is a main factor of Honda bike. Q. 10: Do the spare parts easily available? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 100 100% No 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: When I asked this question, response to this question is 100% in favor. The respondents said they have to never face any problem because the spare parts of Honda Motorcycle are easily available. So it is also a main cause that Honda motorcycle has an edge on other Motorcycle. Q. 11: Do you think that fuel consumption affect your purchase decision? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 91 91% No 9 9% Total 100 100% Conclusion: In the response of this question all respondent said that fuel consumption affect their purchasing decision. They said we can save our money. Because expense of this motorcycle is less as compare to other motorcycle. Q. 12: If Yes then how much? RESPONSES %AGE Very much 60 65. 94% High 20 21. 98% Low 0 0% Normal 11 12. 1% Total 91 100% Conclusion: Out of 100 respondent 60 said that fuel consumption affect their decision very much while 20 said that it is high affect on their decision. While 11 said that fuel consumption has normal affect on their decision. Q. 13: Do you think the price of motorcycle affect your buying decision? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 56 56% No 44 44% Total 100 100% Conclusion: In the response of this question, 56 respondent are those said that price affect their purchasing decision while other 44 respondent told that price does not affect their purchasing decision. Q. 14: If yes than up to what extent? RESPONSES %AGE High 32 57. 15% Normal 22 39. 29% Low 2 3. 58% Total 56 100% Conclusion: Out of 56 respondents are those who said that price affect their purchasing decision, 32 persons  said price has high affect while 22 respondent said that price has normal affect and finally 2 respondent said that it has low affect on their buying decision. Q. 15: Do the mechanics easily available for the repair of Motorcycle? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 100 100% No 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: When we asked this question the entire respondent said that mechanics are easily available for the repair of Honda Motorcycle. So it is also a main factor that Honda Motorcycle captured the market and spread all over the country. Q. 16: What is the resale value of Honda motorcycle after four years? RESPONSES %AGE More then half price 70 70% Equal to half price 29 29% Less than half price 1 1% Total 100 100% Conclusion: Honda Motorcycle is a cash deposit bike. You can cash it at any time. When we asked about the resale value all respondent said that they preferred Honda Motorcycle because it will be sold more than half price. Some respondent said that they sold Honda motorcycle more than their original price. So it is an important factor of Honda Motorcycle. Q. 17: What is the performance of its shocks? RESPONSES %AGE Very good 25 25% Good 55 55% Normal 20 20% Bad 0 0% Very Bad 0 0%. Total 100 100% Conclusion: In response to this question, 25 respondent said V. Good, 55 said Good and 20 people said the performance of shocks is normal. So we can say that the over all performance of shocks is good. Q. 18: What is the performance of its engine? RESPONSES %AGE Very Good 25 25% Good 70 70% Normal 5 5% Bad 0 0% Very Bad 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: 25 respondents said that performance of engine is V. Good 70 respondent said good while 5 person said normal. So it is a main cause due to which Honda Motorcycle captured the market. Q. 19: How is it’s electric system (cdi) ? RESPONSES %AGE Very Good 14 14% Good 40 40% Normal 45 45% Bad 0 0% Very Bad 0 0% No (cdi system) 1 1% Total 100 100% Conclusion: 14% respondent said V. Good, 40% said good and 45% respondent said Normal electric system and 1 respondent said that he has no cdi system I his motorcycle. So over all we can say that Honda electric system of Honda Motorcycle is good. Q. 20: How is the pick up of Honda Motorcycle? RESPONSES %AGE Very Good 5 5% Good 20 20% Normal 75 75% Bad 0 0% Very Bad 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: 5% people said that pick up of Honda Motorcycle power sV. Good, 20% said good and 75%. respondent said its pickup is normal. From this result we conclude that Honda motorcycle is economical bike for the people. Q. 21: Is it a balanced bike? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 100 100% No 0 0% Total 100 100% Conclusion: From 100 respondent all the respondent said that it is a Balanced Bike. So we can conclude that it is balanced bike. Q. 22: Have you seen any Advertise of Honda Motorcycle on TV or any other media like Newspaper, journal etc? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 80 805 No 20 205 Total 100 100% Conclusion: Out of 100 respondents 80 says that they have seen the advertisement of Honda motorcycle and  20 says that they haven’t seen it. So we can say that most of the people have seen the advertisement of Honda Motorcycle. Q. 23: Whether the advertisement of Honda Motorcycle is Impressive? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 30 37. 5% No 50 62. 5% Total 80 100% Conclusion: In the response of this question 37. 5% respondent said that advertisement of Honda CD 70 is impressive while 62. 5% said that it is negative. So, we can conclude that advertisement is not good of Honda motorcycle. Q. 24: Do you thing the advertisement affect your purchasing decision? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 10 12. 5% No 70 87. 5% Total 80 100% Conclusion: Out of 80 respondent 10 said that advertisement affect their purchasing decision while 70 said advertisement has no affect on their buying decision. Q. 25: Do you think the market value affect your purchasing decision? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 95 95% No 5 5% Total 100 100% Conclusion: 95% respondent said that market value affect their purchasing decision while 5% said in No. Honda motorcycle is such motorcycle which we can sell it at any time. So it is a main cause Honda motor has an edge on other motorcycle. Q. 26: Are you satisfied with company after sales service? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 75 75% No 25 25% Total 100 100%. Conclusion: In the regard of this question 75 respondents said that they are satisfied with after sales service while 25 respondents said that they are not satisfied. Q. 27: Have you any suggestion about motor cycle to the company? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 30 30% No 70 70% Total 100 100% Conclusion: 30 respondents give different suggestion they said that company make it heavy, Improve the equality make it innovative reduces the prices of spare parts etc. while 70 respondents give no suggestion. Q. 28: What is your education? RESPONSES %AGE Metric 10 10% F. A. 30 30% B. A. 40 40% Masters 20 20% Uneducated 0 0% Total 100 100%. Conclusion: In our respondent 10 are Metric, 30 are F. A. 40 B. A. and 20 respondents are in masters. So we can say educated people mostly used it. Questionnaire For Dealers Q. 1: Why you preferred the dealership of Honda Motorcycle? RESPONSES %AGE Incentive to dealers 0 0% Easily dealership available 0 0% Much sale 3 100% Total 3 100% Conclusion: Out of 3 dealers, all of them preferred the dealership of Honda motorcycle because its sale is more than other motorcycle. Q. 2: How is the security requirement for its dealership? RESPONSES %AGE High 1 33. 333% Low 0 0% Normal 2 66. 667% Total 3 100% Conclusion: 1 respondent said that its security requirement is high, while 2 respondent said that security requirement is normal. Q. 3: How much the incentive given to you? RESPONSES %AGE Very much 2 66. 667% Much 0 0% Normal 0 0% Less 1 33. 333% Total 3 100% Conclusion: 2 dealers said that for it’s dealership a very much security is required and while 1 say that less security is required for it’s dealership. Q. 5: Do you advise your family members, friends to purchase it? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 3 100% No 0 0% Total 3 100% Conclusion: When we asked this question from dealers, the response is 100%. They said that which thing  they sale they must advertise for it. Q. 6: Why people purchase it? Because of RESPONSES %AGE Fuel consumption 2 66. 667% Spare parts availability 0 0% Four stroke 0 0% All of above 1 33. 333% Total 3 100% Conclusion: In response to this question, 2 dealers said that people purchase it due to fuel consumption, and 1 dealer said that people preferred it because all these qualities are in this motorcycle. It is a four stroke, spare parts easily available and also fuel consumption is less as compare to other motorcycle. Q. 7: Do you check the bike before its sale? RESPONSES %AGE Yes 3 100% No 0 0% Total 3 100% Conclusion: In response to this question all dealers said that they check the bike before its sale. Q. 8: How much are your monthly Sale? RESPONSES %AGE 1-10 0 0% 11-20 0 0% 21-30 3 100% Total 3 100% Conclusion; In reply to this question all the dealers said that their monthly average sale is between 21-30. Q. 9: How much profit you get on the sale of a bike? RESPONSES %AGE 1000-2000 0 0% 2001-3000 3 100% More than 3000 0 0% Total 3 100% Conclusion; All the dealers said that there profit is between 2001-3000 from the sale of each motorbike. Q. 10: What is the behavior of its user about it? RESPONSES %AGE Good 0 0% Very Good 3 100%. Normal 0 0% Total 3 100% Conclusion: All the dealers said that the behavior of customers is very good towards Honda Motorcycle. Q. 11: What step you have taken for its promotion? RESPONSES %AGE Not taking steps for its promotion 0 0% Motivating the people & suggestion to the company 3 100% Total 3 100% Conclusion: We are taking too many steps. We are increasing sales promotion effort. We are also increasing the advertisement of Honda Motorcycle. We are also tried to motivate the people to purchase it. We held seminars with the help of company and also use P. R and tell the people its advantage. Conclusion Conclusion. After conducting the research we can say that Honda motorcycle is successful and popular in people because of the following reasons: Spare Parts Availability: The spare parts of Honda motorcycle is easily avilavble in the market. If some fault occurs and due to that fault customers has to replace a particular parts, Which is easily available in the market, so customer has to face no problem. It is a main factor due to which Honda motorcycle is too much popular. Resale Value: The customers are strongly satisfied with the resale value of Honda motorcycle. The user can easily sale it more that half price at which he purchased. Some time the user of Honda Motorcycle sale it greater that price at which they purchased so it is a fact users agree with its resale value. Petrol Average: The petrol average of Honda motorcycle is also very good. In the beginning its average is very good and more than 70 km per litter. After some time its average decrease but not too much. The minimum petrol average of Honda motorcycle is 50 according to our survey. It is a very good petrol average. Service And Maintenance: The mechanics are easily available for the repair of motorcycle and they also trained in their work. So consumers have to  Face no problem of service and maintenance. After Sale Service: The company gives free service after sale of motorcycle. Due to this customers are satisfied with its after sales services. Pick up: The pick up power of Honda Motorcycle is good. The pick up power of other motorcycle is very low as compare to Honda Motorcycle. 4Strokes: This quality of Honda Motorcycle make this product different from others motorcycle. It is only 4 stroke motorcycle. Electric System: The electric system of Honda Motorcycle is also to much affective. Design: The management of Honda motorcycle changes the design of motorcycle at the time. Honda Company introduced or replaced 113 models of motorcycle with in 18 months, other companies are not able to introduce new model so quickly. Due to this factor Honda motorcycle is popular. Others: When we asked questions to the customers about the bike, most people said that it is a balanced bike. They showed satisfaction on the meter performance, shocks reliability and speed. One more factor we felt during our survey is that mostly students and Govt. servant like Honda motorcycle and it is more popular in highly educated person the age group 20-25 years and income Rs3000 to 5000.

Bag of Bones CHAPTER TWENTY-NINE

I reached for Ki with the part of my mind that had for the last few weeks known what she was wearing, what room of the trailer she was in, and what she was doing there. There was nothing, of course that link was also dissolved. I called for Jo I think I did but Jo was gone, too. I was on my own. God help me. God help us both. I could feel panic trying to descend and fought it off. I had to keep my mind clear. If I couldn't think, any chance Ki might still have would be lost. I walked rapidly back down the hall to the foyer, trying not to hear the sick voice in the back of my head, the one saying that Ki was lost already, dead already. I knew no such thing, couldn't know it now that the connection between us was broken. I looked down at the heap of books, then up at the door. The new tracks had come in this way and gone out this way, too. Lightning stroked the sky and thunder cracked. The wind was rising again. I went to the door, reached for the knob, then paused. Something was caught in the crack between the door and the jamb, something as fine and floaty as a strand of spider's silk. A single white hair. I looked at it with a sick lack of surprise. I should have known, of course, and if not for the strain I'd been under and the successive shocks of this terrible day, I would have known. It was all on the tape John had played for me that morning . . . a time that already seemed part of another man's life. For one thing, there was the time-check marking the point where John had hung up on her. Nine-forty A.M., Eastern Daylight, the robot voice had said, which meant that Rogette had been calling at six-forty in the morning . . . if, that was, she'd really been calling from Palm Springs. That was at least possible; had the oddity occurred to me while we were driving from the airport to Mattie's trailer, I would have told myself that there were no doubt insomniacs all over California who finished their East Coast business before the sun had hauled itself fully over the horizon, and good for them. But there was something else that couldn't be explained away so easily. At one point John had ejected the tape. He did it because, he said, I'd gone as white as a sheet instead of looking amused. I had told him to go on and play the rest; it had just surprised me to hear her again. The quality of her voice. Christ, the reproduction is good. Except it was really the boys in the basement who had reacted to John's tape; my subconscious co-conspirators. And it hadn't been her voice that had scared them badly enough to turn my face white. The underhum had done that. The characteristic underhum you always got on TR calls, both those you made and those you received. Rogette Whitmore had never left TR-90 at all. If my failing to realize that this morning cost Ki Devore her life this afternoon, I wouldn't be able to live with myself. I told God that over and over as I went plunging down the railroad-tie steps again, running into the face of a revitalized storm. It's a blue-eyed wonder I didn't go flying right off the embankment. Half my swimming float had grounded there, and perhaps I could have impaled myself on its splintered boards and died like a vampire writhing on a stake. What a pleasant thought that was. Running isn't good for people near panic; it's like scratching poison ivy. By the time I had thrown my arm around one of the pines at the foot of the steps to check my progress, I was on the edge of losing all coherent thought. Ki's name was beating in my head again, so loudly there wasn't room for much else. Then a stroke of lightning leaped out of the sky to my right and knocked the last three feet of trunk out from beneath a huge old spruce which had probably been here when Sara and Kito were still alive. If I'd been looking directly at it I would have been blinded; even with my head turned three-quarters away, the stroke left a huge blue swatch like the aftermath of a gigantic camera flash floating in front of my eyes. There was a grinding, juddering sound as two hundred feet of blue spruce toppled into the lake, sending up a long curtain of spray, which seemed to hang between the gray sky and gray water. The stump was on fire in the rain, burning like a witch's hat. It had the effect of a slap, clearing my head and giving me one final chance to use my brain. I took a breath and forced myself to do just that. Why had I come down here in the first place? Why did I think Rogette had brought Kyra toward the lake, where I had just been, instead of carrying her away from me, up the driveway to Lane Forty-two? Don't be stupid. She came down here because The Street's the way back to Warrington's, and Warrington's is where she's been, all by herself, ever since she sent the boss's body back to California in his private jet. She had sneaked into the house while I was under Jo's studio, finding the tin box in the belly of the owl and studying that scrap of genealogy. She would have taken Ki then if I'd given her the chance, but I didn't. I came hurrying back, afraid something was wrong, afraid someone might be trying to get hold of the kid Had Rogette awakened her? Had Ki seen her and tried to warn me before drifting off again? Was that what had brought me in such a hurry? Maybe. I'd still been in the zone then, we'd still been linked then. Rogette had certainly been in the house when I came back. She might even have been in the north-bedroom closet and peering at me through the crack. Part of me had known it, too. Part of me had felt her, felt something that was not-Sara. Then I'd left again. Grabbed the carry-bag from Slips ‘n Greens and come down here. Turned right, turned north. Toward the birch, the rock, the bag of bones. I'd done what I had to do, and while I was doing it, Rogette carried Kyra down the railroad-tie steps behind me and turned left on The Street. Turned south toward Warrington's. With a sinking feeling deep in my belly, I realized I had probably heard Ki . . . might even have seen her. That bird peeking timidly out from cover during the lull had been no bird. Ki was awake by then, Ki had seen me perhaps had seen Jo, as well and tried to call out. She had managed just that one little peep before Rogette had covered her mouth. How long ago had that been? It seemed like forever, but I had an idea it hadn't been long at all less than five minutes, maybe. But it doesn't take long to drown a child. The image of Kito's bare arm sticking straight out of the water tried to come back the hand at the end of it opening and closing, opening and closing, as if it were trying to breathe for the lungs that couldn't and I pushed it away. I also suppressed the urge to simply sprint in the direction of Warrington's. Panic would take me for sure if I did that. In all the years since her death I had never longed for Jo with the bitter intensity I felt then. But she was gone; there wasn't even a whisper of her. With no one to depend on but myself, I started south along the tree-littered Street, skirting the blowdowns where I could, crawling under them if they blocked my way entirely, taking the noisy branch-breaking course over the top only as a last resort. As I went I issued what I imagine are all the standard prayers in such a situation, but none of them seemed to get past the image of Rogette Whitmore's face rising in my mind. Her screaming, merciless face. I remember thinking This is the outdoor version of the Ghost House. Certainly the woods seemed haunted to me as I struggled along: trees only loosened in the first grand blow were falling by the score in this follow-up cap of wind and rain. The noise was like great crunching footfalls, and I didn't need to worry about the noise my own feet were making. When I passed the Batchelders' camp, a circular prefab construction sitting on an outcrop of rock like a hat on a footstool, I saw that the entire roof had been bashed flat by a hemlock. Half a mile south of Sara I saw one of Ki's white hair ribbons lying in the path. I picked it up, thinking how much that red edging looked like blood. Then I stuffed it into my pocket and went on. Five minutes later I came to an old moss-caked pine that had fallen across the path; it was still connected to its stump by a stretched and bent network of splinters, and squalled like a line of rusty hinges as the surging water lifted and dropped what had been its upper twenty or thirty feet, now floating in the lake. There was space to crawl under, and when I dropped to my knees I saw other knee-tracks, just beginning to fill with water. I saw something else: the second hair ribbon. I tucked it into my pocket with the first. I was halfway under the pine when I heard another tree go over, this one much closer. The sound was followed by a scream not pain or fear but surprised anger. Then, even over the hiss of the rain and the wind, I could hear Rogette's voice: ‘Come back! Don't go out there, it's dangerous!' I squirmed the rest of the way under the tree, barely feeling the stump of a branch which tore a groove in my lower back, got to my feet, and sprinted along the path. If the fallen trees I came to were small, I hurdled them without slowing down. If they were bigger, I scrabbled over with no thought to where they might claw or dig in. Thunder whacked. There was a brilliant stroke of lightning, and in its glare I saw gray barnboard through the trees. On the day I'd first seen Rogette I'd only been able to catch glimpses of Warrington's lodge, but now the forest had been torn open like an old garment this area would be years recovering. The lodge's rear half had been pretty well demolished by a pair of huge trees that seemed to have fallen together. They had crossed like a knife and fork on a diner's plate and lay on the ruins in a shaggy X. Ki's voice, rising over the storm only because it was shrill with terror: ‘Go away! I don't want you, white nana! Go away!' It was horrible to hear the terror in her voice, but wonderful to hear her voice at all. About forty feet from where Rogette's shout had frozen me in place, one more tree lay across the path. Rogette herself stood on the far side of it, holding a hand out to Ki. The hand was dripping blood, but I hardly noticed. It was Kyra I noticed. The dock running between The Street and The Sunset Bar was a long one seventy feet at least, perhaps a hundred. Long enough so that on a pretty summer evening you could stroll it hand-in-hand with your date or your lover and make a memory. The storm hadn't torn it away not yet but the wind had twisted it like a ribbon. I remember newsreel footage at some childhood Saturday matinee, film of a suspension bridge dancing in a hurricane, and that was what the dock between Warring-ton's and The Sunset Bar looked like. It jounced up and down in the surging water, groaning in all its slatted joints like a wooden accordion. There had been a rail presumably to guide those who'd made a heavy night of it safely back to shore but it was gone now. K yra was halfway out along this swaying, dipping length of wood. I could see at least three rectangles of blackness between the shore and where she stood, places where boards had snapped off. From beneath the dock came the disturbed clung-clung-clung of the empty steel drums that were holding it up. Several of these drums had come unanchored and were floating away. Ki had her arms stretched out for balance like a tightrope walker in the circus. The black Harley-Davidson tee-shirt flapped around her knees and sunburned shoulders. ‘Come back!' Rogette cried. Her lank hair flew around her head; the shiny black raincoat she was wearing rippled. She was holding both hands out now, one bloody and one not. I had an idea Ki might have bitten her. ‘No, white nana!' Ki shook her head in wild negation and I wanted to tell her don't do that, Ki-bird, don't shake your head like that, very bad idea. She tottered, one arm pointed up at the sky and one down at the water so she looked for a moment like an airplane in a steep bank. If the dock had picked that moment to take a hard buck beneath her, Ki would have spilled off the side. She regained some precarious balance instead, although I thought I saw her bare feet slide a little on the slick boards. ‘Go away, white nana, I don't want you! Go . . . go take a nap, you look tired!' Ki didn't see me; all her attention was fixed on the white nana. The white nana didn't see me, either. I dropped to my belly and squirmed under the tree, pulling myself along with my clawed hands. Thunder rolled across the lake like a big mahogany ball, the sound echoing off the mountains. When I got to my knees again, I saw that Rogette was advancing slowly toward the shore end of the dock. For every step she took forward, Kyra took a shaky, dangerous step backward. Rogette was holding her good hand out, though for a moment I thought this one had begun to bleed as well. The stuff running through her bunchy fingers was too dark for blood, however, and when she began to talk, speaking in a hideous coaxing voice that made my skin crawl, I realized it was melting chocolate. ‘Let's play the game, Ki-bird,' Rogette cooed. ‘Do you want to start?' She took a step. Ki took a compensatory step backward, tottered, caught her balance. My heart stopped, then resumed racing. I closed the distance between myself and the woman as rapidly as I could, but I didn't run; I didn't want her to know a thing until she woke up. If she woke up. I didn't care if she did or not. Hell, if I could fracture the back of George Footman's skull with a hammer, I could certainly put a hurt on this horror. As I walked, I laced my hands together into one large fist. ‘No? Don't want to start? Too shy?' Rogette spoke in a sugary Romper Room voice that made me want to grind my teeth together. ‘All right, I'll start. Happy! What rhymes with happy, Ki-bird? Pappy . . . and nappy . . . you were taking a nappy, weren't you, when I came and woke you up. And lappy . . . would you want to come and sit on my lappy, Ki-bird? We'll feed each other chocolate, just like we used to . . . I'll tell you a new knock-knock joke . . . ‘ Another step. She had come to the edge of the dock. If she'd thought of it, she could simply have thrown rocks at Kyra as she had at me, thrown until she connected with one and knocked Ki into the lake. But I don't think she got even close to such a notion. Once crazy goes past a certain point, you're on a turnpike with no exit ramps. Rogette had other plans for Kyra. ‘Come on, Ki-Ki, play the game with white nana.' She held out the chocolate again, gooey Hershey's Kisses dripping through crumpled foil. Kyra's eyes shifted, and at last she saw me. I shook my head, trying to tell her to be quiet, but it was no good an expression of joyous relief crossed her face. She cried out my name, and I saw Rogette's shoulders go up in surprise. I ran the last dozen feet, raising my joined hands like a club, but I slipped a little on the wet ground at the crucial moment and Rogette made a kind of ducking cringe. Instead of striking her at the back of the neck as I'd meant to, my joined hands only glanced off her shoulder. She staggered, went to one knee, and was up again almost at once. Her eyes were like little blue arc-lamps, spitting rage instead of electricity. ‘You!' she said, hissing the word over the top of her tongue, turning it into the sound of some ancient curse: Heeyuuuu! Behind us Kyra screamed my name, stagger-dancing on the wet wood and waving her arms in an effort to keep from falling in the lake. Water slopped onto the deck and ran over her small bare feet. ‘Hold on, Ki!' I called back. Rogette saw my attention shift and took her chance she spun and ran out onto the dock. I sprang after her, grabbed her by the hair, and it came off in my hand. All of it. I stood there at the edge of the surging lake with her mat of white hair dangling from my fist like a scalp. Rogette looked over her shoulder, snarling, an ancient bald gnome in the rain, and I thought It's him, it's Devore, he never died at all, somehow he and the woman swapped identities, she was the one who committed suicide, it was her body that went back to California on the jet Even as she turned the other way again and began to run toward Ki, I knew better. It was Rogette, all right, but she'd come by that hideous resemblance honestly. Whatever was wrong with her had done more than make her hair fall out; it had aged her as well. Seventy, I'd thought, but that had to be at least ten years beyond the actual mark. I've known a lot of folks name their kids alike, Mrs M. had told me. They think it's cute. Max Devore must have thought so, too, because he had named a son Roger and his daughter Rogette. Perhaps she'd come by the Whitmore part honestly she might have been married in her younger years but once the wig was gone, her antecedents were beyond argument. The woman tottering along the wet dock to finish the job was Kyra's aunt. Ki began to back up rapidly, making no effort to be careful and pick her footing. She was going into the drink; there was no way she could stay up. But before she could fall, a wave slapped the dock between them at a place where some of the barrels had come loose and the slatted walkway was already partly submerged. Foamy water flew up and began to twist into one of those helix shapes I had seen before. Rogette stopped ankle-deep in the water sloshing over the dock, and I stopped about twelve feet behind her. The shape solidified, and even before I could make out the face I recognized the baggy shorts with their fading swirls of color and the smock top. Only Kmart sells smock tops of such perfect shapelessness; I think it may be a federal law. It was Mattie. A grave gray Mattie, looking at Rogette with grave gray eyes. Rogette raised her hands, tottered, tried to turn. At that moment a wave surged under the dock, making it rise and then drop like an amusement-park ride. Rogette went over the side. Beyond her, beyond the water-shape in the rain, I could see Ki sprawling on the porch of The Sunset Bar. That last heave had flipped her to temporary safety like a human tiddlywink. Mattie was looking at me, her lips moving, her eyes on mine. I had been able to tell what Jo was saying, but this time I had no idea. I tried with all my might, but I couldn't make it out. ‘Mommy! Mommy!' The figure didn't so much turn as revolve; it didn't actually seem to be there below the hem of the long shorts. It moved up the dock to the bar, where Ki was now standing with her arms held out. Something grabbed at my foot. I looked down and saw a drowning apparition in the surging water. Dark eyes stared up at me from beneath the bald skull. Rogette was coughing water from between lips that were as purple as plums. Her free hand waved weakly up at me. The fingers opened . . . and closed. Opened . . . and closed. I dropped to one knee and took it. It clamped over mine like a steel claw and she yanked, trying to pull me in with her. The purple lips peeled back from yellow toothpegs like those in Sara's skull. And yes I thought that this time Rogette was the one laughing. I rocked on my haunches and yanked her up. I didn't think about it; it was pure instinct. I had her by at least a hundred pounds, and three quarters of her came out of the lake like a gigantic, freakish trout. She screamed, darted her head forward, and buried her teeth in my wrist. The pain was immediate and enormous. I jerked my arm up even higher and then brought it down, not thinking about hurting her, wanting only to rid myself of that weasel's mouth. Another wave hit the half-submerged dock as I did. Its rising, splintered edge impaled Rogette's descending face. One eye popped; a dripping yellow splinter ran up her nose like a dagger; the scant skin of her forehead split, snapping away from the bone like two suddenly released windowshades. Then the lake pulled her away. I saw the torn topography of her face a moment longer, upturned into the torrential rain, wet and as pale as the light from a fluorescent bar. Then she rolled over, her black vinyl raincoat swirling around her li ke a shroud. What I saw when I looked back toward The Sunset Bar was another glimpse under the skin of this world, but one far different from the face of Sara in the Green Lady or the snarling, half-glimpsed shape of the Outsider. Kyra stood on the wide wooden porch in front of the bar amid a litter of overturned wicker furniture. In front of her was a waterspout in which I could still see very faintly the fading shape of a woman. She was on her knees, holding her arms out. They tried to embrace. Ki's arms went through Mattie and came out dripping. ‘Mommy, I can't get you!' The woman in the water was speaking I could see her lips moving. Ki looked at her, rapt. Then, for just a moment Mattie turned to me. Our eyes met, and hers were made of the lake. They were Dark Score, which was here long before I came and will remain long after I am gone. I put my hands to my mouth, kissed my palms, and held them out to her. Shimmery hands went up, as if to catch those kisses. ‘Mommy don't go!' Kyra screamed, and flung her arms around the figure. She was immediately drenched and backed away with her eyes squinched shut, coughing. There was no longer a woman with her; there was only water running across the boards and dripping through the cracks to rejoin the lake, which comes up from deep springs far below, from the fissures in the rock which underlies the TR and all this part of our world. Moving carefully, doing my own balancing act, I made my way out along the wavering dock to The Sunset Bar. When I got there I took Kyra in my arms. She hugged me tight, shivering fiercely against me. I could hear the small dicecup rattle of her teeth and smell the lake in her hair. ‘Mattie came,' she said. ‘I know. I saw her.' ‘Mattie made the white nana go away.' ‘I saw that, too. Be very still now, Ki. We're going back to solid ground, but you can't move around a lot. If you do, we'll end up swimming.' She was good as gold. When we were on The Street again and I tried to put her down, she clung to my neck fiercely. That was okay with me. I thought of taking her into Warrington's, but didn't. There would be towels in there, probably dry clothes as well, but I had an idea there might also be a bathtub full of warm water waiting in there. Besides, the rain was slackening again and this time the sky looked lighter in the west. ‘What did Mattie tell you, hon?' I asked as we walked north along The Street. Ki would let me put her down so we could crawl under the downed trees we came to, but raised her arms to be picked up again on the far side of each. ‘To be a good girl and not be sad. But I am sad. I'm very sad.' She began to cry, and I stroked her wet hair. By the time we got to the railroad-tie steps she had cried herself out . . . and over the mountains in the west, I could see one small but very brilliant wedge of blue. ‘All the woods fell down,' Ki said, looking around. Her eyes were very wide. ‘Well . . . not all, but a lot of them, I guess.' Halfway up the steps I paused, puffing and seriously winded. I didn't ask Ki if I could put her down, though. I didn't want to put her down. I just wanted to catch my breath. ‘Mike?' ‘What, doll?' ‘Mattie told me something else.' ‘What?' ‘Can I whisper?' ‘If you want to, sure.' Ki leaned close, put her lips to my ear, and whispered. I listened. When she was done I nodded, kissed her cheek, shifted her to the other hip, and carried her the rest of the way up to the house. ‘T'wasn't the stawm of the century, chummy, and don't you go thinkin that it was. Nossir. So said the old-timers who sat in front of the big Army medics' tent that served as the Lakeview General that late summer and fall. A huge elm had toppled across Route 68 and bashed the store in like a Saltines box. Adding injury to insult, the elm had carried a bunch of spitting live lines with it. They ignited propane from a ruptured tank, and the whole thing went kaboom. The tent was a pretty good warm-weather substitute, though, and folks on the TR took to saying they was going down to the MASH for bread and beer this because you could still see a faded red cross on both sides of the tent's roof. The old-timers sat along one canvas wall in folding chairs, waving to other old-timers when they went pooting by in their rusty old-timer cars (all certified old-timers own either Fords or Chevys, so I'm well on my way in that regard), swapping their undershirts for flannels as the days began to cool toward cider season and spud-digging, watching the township start to rebuild itself around them. And as they watched they talked about the ice storm of the past winter, the one that knocked out lights and splintered a million trees between Kittery and Fort Kent; they talked about the cyclones that touched down in August of 1985; they talked about the sleet hurricane of 1927. Now there was some stawms, they said. There was some stawms, by Gorry. I'm sure they've got a point, and I don't argue with them you rarely win an argument with a genuine Yankee old-timer, never if it's about the weather but for me the storm of July 21, 1998, will always be the storm. And I know a little girl who feels the same. She may live until 2100, given all the benefits of modern medicine, but I think that for Kyra Elizabeth Devore that will always be the storm. The one where her dead mother came to her dressed in the lake. The first vehicle to come down my driveway didn't arrive until almost six o'clock. It turned out to be not a Castle County police car but a yellow bucket-loader with flashing yellow lights on top of the cab and a guy in a Central Maine Power Company slicker working the controls. The guy in the other seat was a cop, though was in fact Norris Ridgewick, the County Sheriff himself. And he came to my door with his gun drawn. The change in the weather the TV guy had promised had already arrived, clouds and storm-cells driven east by a chilly wind running just under gale force. Trees had continued to fall in the dripping woods for at least an hour after the rain stopped. Around five o'clock I made us toasted-cheese sandwiches and tomato soup . . . comfort food, Jo would have called it. Kyra ate listlessly, but she did eat, and she drank a lot of milk. I had wrapped her in another of my tee-shirts and she tied her own hair back. I offered her the white ribbons, but she shook her head decisively and opted for a rubber band instead. ‘I don't like those ribbons anymore,' she said. I decided I didn't, either, and threw them away. Ki watched me do it and offered no objection. Then I crossed the living room to the woodstove. ‘What are you doing?' She finished her second glass of milk, wriggled off her chair, and came over to me. ‘Making a fire. Maybe all those hot days thinned my blood. That's what my mom would have said, anyway.' She watched silently as I pulled sheet after sheet from the pile of paper I'd taken off the table and stacked on top of the woodstove, balled each one up, and slipped it in through the door. When I felt I'd loaded enough, I began to lay bits of kindling on top. ‘What's written on those papers?' Ki asked. ‘Nothing important.' ‘Is it a story?' ‘Not really. It was more like . . . oh, I don't know. A crossword puzzle. Or a letter.' ‘Pretty long letter,' she said, and then laid her head against my leg as if she were tired. ‘Yeah,' I said. ‘Love letters usually are, but keeping them around is a bad idea.' ‘Why?' ‘Because they . . . ‘ Can come back to haunt you was what rose to mind, but I wouldn't say it. ‘Because they can embarrass you in later life.' ‘Oh.' ‘Besides,' I said. ‘These papers are like your ribbons, in a way.' ‘You don't like them anymore.' ‘Right.' She saw the box then the tin box with JO'S NOTIONS written on the front. It was on the counter between the living room and the sink, not far from where old Krazy Kat had hung on the wall. I didn't remember bringing the box up from the studio with me, but I suppose I might not have; I was pretty freaked. I also think it could have come up . . . kind of by itself. I do believe such things now; I have reason to. Kyra's eyes lit up in a way they hadn't since she had wakened from her short nap to find out her mother was dead. She stood on tiptoe to take hold of the box, then ran her small fingers across the gilt letters. I thought about how important it was for a kid to own a tin box. You had to have one for your secret stuff the best toy, the prettiest bit of lace, the first piece of jewelry. Or a picture of your mother, perhaps. ‘This is so . . . pretty,' she said in a soft, awed voice. ‘You can have it if you don't mind it saying JO'S NOTIONS instead of ‘KI'S NOTIONS. There are some papers in it I want to read, but I could put them somewhere else.' She looked at me to make sure I wasn't kidding, saw I wasn't. ‘I'd love it,' she said in the same soft, awed voice. I took the box from her, scooped out the steno books, notes, and clippings, then handed it back to Ki. She practiced taking the lid off and then putting it back on. ‘Guess what I'll put in here,' she said. ‘Secret treasures?' ‘Yes!' she said, and actually smiled for a moment. ‘Who was Jo, Mike? Do I know her? I do, don't I? She was one of the fridgearator people.' ‘She ‘ A thought occurred. I shuffled through the yellowed clippings. Nothing. I thought I'd lost it somewhere along the way, then saw a corner of what I was looking for peeking from the middle of one of the steno notebooks. I slid it out and handed it to Ki. ‘What is it?' ‘A backwards photo. Hold it up to the light.' She did, and looked for a long time, rapt. Faint as a dream I could see my wife in her hand, my wife standing on the swimming float in her two-piece suit. ‘That's Jo,' I said. ‘She's pretty. I'm glad to have her box for my things.' ‘I am too, Ki.' I kissed the top of her head. When Sheriff Ridgewick hammered on the door, I thought it wise to answer with my hands up. He looked wired. What seemed to ease the situation was a simple, uncalculated question. ‘Where's Alan Pangborn these days, Sheriff?' ‘Over New Hampshire,' Ridgewick said, lowering his pistol a little (a minute or two later he holstered it without even seeming to be aware he had done so). ‘He and Polly are doing real well. Except for her arthritis. That's nasty, I guess, but she still has her good days. A person can go along quite awhile if they get a good day every once and again, that's what I think. Mr. Noonan, I have a lot of questions for you. You know that, don't you?' ‘Yes.' ‘First off and most important, do you have the child? Kyra Devore?' ‘Yes.' ‘Where is she?' ‘I'll be happy to show you.' We walked down the north-wing corridor and stood just outside the bedroom doorway, looking in. The duvet was pulled up to her chin and she was sleeping deeply. The stuffed dog was curled in one hand we could just see its muddy tail poking out of her fist at one end and its nose poking out at the other. We stood there for a long time, neither of us saying anything, watching her sleep in the light of a summer evening. In the woods the trees had stopped falling, but the wind still blew. Around the eaves of Sara Laughs it made a sound like ancient music.

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